2017-03: Everybody Lies
Interesting book review of S eth Stephens-Davidowitz (SSD) new book: ‘ Everybody Lies ’. It’s by Galen Strawson, who notes that when SSD set up as a data scientist, his “first source was Google Trends, which records the relative frequency of particular searches in different places at different times. He soon added Google Adwords, which registers the actual number of searches. Then he moved on to other vastnesses: Wikipedia, Facebook and then PornHub, one of the largest pornographic sites in the world. PornHub gave him its complete data set, duly anonymised: every single search and video view. He also ‘scraped’ many other sites, including neo-Nazi sites such as Stormfront, which account for the internet’s resemblance to the box jellyfish, a highly poisonous predator with 60 anuses.
Ignoble metadata flowed in. He found that searches for racist jokes rise about 30% on Martin Luther King Day in the US, and that in the recent Republican primaries, regions that supported Donald Trump in the largest numbers made the most Google searches for ‘nigger’. Data from Prosper, a peer-to-peer loan website, showed that there are five expressions in particular that one should beware of when reviewing applications for loans: ‘God’, ‘promise’, ‘will pay’, ‘hospital’ and ‘thank you’. Making promises ‘is a sure sign that someone will … not do something.’ ‘God’ is particularly bad news.”
Strawson notes that, for a social scientist such as SSD “big data has four central virtues. First, it’s a ‘digital truth serum’: it supplies honest data on matters people lie about in surveys, for instance racist attitudes, but above all (to quote Mick Jagger) ‘sex and sex and sex and sex’. Second, it offers the means to run large-scale randomised controlled experiments – which are usually extremely laborious and expensive – at almost no cost, and in this way uncover causal linkages in addition to mere correlations. Third, the sheer quantity of data allows us to zoom in precisely on small subsets of people in a way that was previously impossible. Finally, it provides new types of data.”
Strawson does not share SSD’s general optimism and ends on a chilling note: “I suspect the easy availability of pornography is turning out to be one of the great tragedies of human history, destructive of the best kind of sexual relations. If we had an infallible happyometer that could measure the overall gains and losses to human existence caused by the internet, I think we’d find that the balance was – will increasingly be – negative.”
Everybody Lies: What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are is published by Bloomsbury [RRP £20]










